Don't Get Caught Up In The Hype Or Social Media Horse Shit... Today, To Hold Gold Or To Sell It Should Be An Incredibly Easy Decision

The best explanation I have read for gold’s worst week in 15 years says the dollar is not to blame. It is not TIPS-yields’ fault either. Those only explain tiniest part of the move. The real explanation is simpler (and maybe more uncomfortable).

Over the past two years or so gold became a crowd trade, akin to a meme stock.

It started when central banks bought gold after Russia’s assets that were frozen in 2022.

That drove the first leg.

Then, of course, the damn hedge funds, which produce nothing and are only driven by greed, piled in. They were followed by Main Street – retail, and day traders riding the momentum.

The first step in figuring out where you are with gold is to apply some penny stock logic, which we know a bit about because we chase moonshots, too.

The structural thing to focus on today is all that hedge fund and retail money is not strategic. It’ll leave fast.

Look at the 2020 to 2026 chart. Gold went from $1,500 to $5,300. The parabolic move started in 2024 and went near vertical into early 2026.

That was not central bank accumulation. That was momentum money arriving late and paying full price. Because they got in so high any threat to the price causes a snow balling mass exodus.

So, here’s the signal that most people are missing. Central banks are still they key.

That’s because the entire point of foreign exchange reserves is to protect a country’s ability to buy imports during a shock. The Iran war (now referred to as an excursion) has created the largest oil supply disruption in history, according to the IEA.

Oil’s price is so high that oil importing countries are spending gold reserves as an offset right now, not accumulating them.

Moreover, on the opposite side of the trade, if Gulf countries cannot export through Hormuz, they can’t sell oil, so they face fiscal pressures that could lead them to sell gold to offset losses rather than buy it.

This is a temporary reversal of the central bank bid. Not permanent. But real.

The same logic applies to Indian and Chinese retail holders. When oil hits $112 and their economies slow, gold savings become an ATM. People sell what has gains to cover what is rising in cost. Indian retail has historically been a price-sensitive seller at exactly these moments.

So, what's the honest picture?

The structural case for gold, central bank de-dollarisation, negative real rates, geopolitical instability, is intact. None of that has changed. But the crowd that amplified the move is unwinding. And the buyers, the central banks, that drove the first leg are temporarily sidelined.

Gold started 2026 at $4,300 and it’s at $4,500 today. That is still a positive year.

The “No Protection” headline is a narrative, not a fact.

But how far and deep the momentum buyers unwind before the structural buyers return is genuinely unknown. Anyone telling you they know the floor is guessing.

What To Do Now:

The question is not whether gold works over a cycle. The question is whether you bought it as a long-term position or as a momentum trade.

If it was momentum, you already know what to do.

If it was conviction, you already know what to do.

Don’t get trapped by hype or social media horse shit.

Because, when you silence the noise – facts or causation that may be up for debate – staying in gold or getting out is a brutally simple decision.