Hands On the Future

By LYNN CARPENTER

May 9, 2025

 

Widespread Artificial Intelligence is looming. Or dawning? Whether you see AI as promise or the threat, it would take a direct wallop by a giant asteroid to thwart this trend. 

 

That’s why we’ve been pondering what AI means for people’s work and the careers of tomorrow. Maybe it brings a future where we humans all relax under the apple tree and let AI manage everything, but we doubt it. A human without any purpose or calling is a sad creature.

 

Then this article came up in the Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything section, “The High School Juniors with $70,000-a-year Job Offers.”

There’s a lot the article didn’t say and that’s what is interesting. It didn’t note that AI is making jobs for new college grads with Computer Science majors hard to find. And yet, these high school kids in what we called “shop” classes say they feel like athletes that everyone is courting. 

 

Let’s have some perspective on that salary, though. A high school student who usually makes $12 an hour working part time may think $70,000 is blazing money. But as working adults, these students will buy groceries, pay car insurance, and spend $1,500 a month or more on the tiniest apartment.

It’s a good salary for skipping college, though.  The median beginning salary for young college grad is $40,500 according to the Association of Public and Land Grant Universities. that.  The costs are high for college, but worse, the jobs are not always waiting. Computer Science majors now report it’s taking them several months, hundreds of resumes, and dozens of interviews to land their first job.

 

Looking a little farther ahead, we believe the high value of a trade education could be a long-term trend for investors. The reason for that has a lot to do with computers and AI. 

New technologies like AI follow a pattern of specialism, merging into a broader swath of society, and eventually crossing into the mainstream. Anyone over 60 has seen that with computers. 

 

To cite another example, there’s the car.  In 1895, Gottlieb Daimler said that at most 5,000 vehicles would be built because there weren’t enough chauffeurs to drive more. By 1900, there were about 8,000 cars in the US. Even then there were only 20-25 women drivers in Chicago, America’s second largest city. You know what happened next. Even teenagers drive cars.

 

Which brings us back to the $70,000 high school junior. Older skilled workers are retiring, and employers are looking for young replacements, with a twist.  They need to be artisan-geeks because the skilled trades now weld, repair cars, lay brick, install HVAC and work as machinists now need computer skills, too.  “I’m not looking to hire the guy I used to have 20 years ago,” one employer told the Wall Street Journal. His welders need computer skills to operate the $1.7 million steel laser cutter and other advanced equipment.

 

That’s why we see an investible trend in education for skilled trades. The problem is finding publicly listed companies that are preparing students for this.    

The best-known private education stocks such as Perdeceo (PRDO and Laureate Education (LAUR)) are missing out, still stuck in computers, business admin, interior design and such.

Lincoln Educational (LINC) is the one company among dozens of educational stocks that is addressing skilled trades. We like it a lot for the long term.

 

Lincoln was incorporated in 1946 and offers classes in automotive technology, health sciences, skilled trades, business and information technology, and hospitality services on 21 campuses in 12 states under Lincoln College of Technology, Lincoln Technical Institute, Lincoln Culinary Institute, and associated brand names.

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Lincoln has an expansion plan that we believe is realistic and can keep the company in the black as it grows. In 2025, it will add 4 new programs and two new campuses. That cut earnings somewhat, though they remain positive. The company expects earnings to rise from $42 million in FY 2024 to $90 million for FY 2027. Its growth strategy is working—Lincoln’s  revenues have increased by 50% in the past four years.

 

Lincoln is still a small cap ($659 million market cap), but it’s a solid company with no outstanding debt.

This is how solid it is—After all the scandals from fast and loose profiteers like ITT Tech, Corinthian Colleges, and  University of Phoenix in the past, Lincoln’s schools have found placements for 90% of their graduates. Retention rates are outstanding;  80% of its students complete their studies. That trounces the national average of only 29% graduation rates at for-profit colleges as a group. Best of all, Lincoln students get their shot at high-paying jobs for an average total tuition cost of $38,000. 

 

When AI comes for computer grad jobs, we predict Lincoln grads will be using AI to succeed.